Long-range planning can be quite difficult at times. There\’s no way to know what conditions will be like when a months-away event finally arrives; and of course it doesn\’t matter whether it\’s a solo ride or an organized one. Bad weather is bad weather.

Suppose I wanted to do a 100-mile ride in April. Will we have overnight lows of 80 degrees; or will it drop to the 40s? Will it be calm; or will I have to battle headwinds much of the day, as happened with the tricycle century?

Will the weather be clear; or will it rain? I wish I had rain gear that could stand up to a heavy downpour. My cycling jacket quickly gets soaked even in light rain; and then I get cold. My poncho is oversized; and it flaps around like crazy in the wind. That creates extra resistance, and makes the bicycle harder to control.

Ergo if the forecast were for cold, wind, and rain; or, alternatively, for extreme heat; might I be justified in postponing the ride? Nobody likes to be a wimp; but where\’s the line between wimpy and sensible?

Incidentally, there\’s an advantage to a solo event: if the weather is terrible, you can wait until next week; and no harm done. If it\’s an organized event, you\’ve missed out until next year.

How can I be sure I\’m preparing for a big ride as I should? Merely putting in the miles is only part of getting ready. How can I tell whether I\’m doing enough work to improve my force? Have I even allowed myself enough time to train up?

Without a crystal ball, I can do only so much in regard to long-range planning. It\’s quite a gamble.